Fatemeh Hajisami; Mohammod Hossin Mahdavi Adeli; Narges Salehnia
Abstract
Among energy carriers, the role of oil is more remarkable in economic development of developed and developing countries. But the fluctuations in oil price, existence of constant challenges between suppliers and demanders, the beginning of descending trend of production and promoting the energy security ...
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Among energy carriers, the role of oil is more remarkable in economic development of developed and developing countries. But the fluctuations in oil price, existence of constant challenges between suppliers and demanders, the beginning of descending trend of production and promoting the energy security in its consuming countries have caused besides oil, its substitutes find specific importance. Development and extraction of unconventional resources on one hand have made changes in reservoirs ranking in different areas of the world and has weakened the dependency of consuming countries and on the other hand, it has affected the changing trend of oil price. In this respect, the present study investigates the causal relationship between oil price and supplying unconventional oil and gas during time period of 2000-2015. Two techniques named Granger technique and Toda and Yamamoto technique have been used to investigate the causal relationship. The results of the research show that in all studying period (2000-2015) the unconventional supply is the strong and direct cause for oil price and the indirect and weak price are introduced as the causes of unconventional supply. Also, based on the results, the strong impact of financial markets on the supply of unconventional resources and oil prices has been achieved. On the other hands the results show that unconventional supply will affect the supply of OPEC in the long term (2000-2015). Therefore, this achievement for OPEC countries, as well as Iran, can be used as a result of a strategic change in production policy.
Reza Fahimi Doab; Ahmad Sabahi; Mohammad Hosein Mahdavi Adeli; Ahmad Seifi
Volume 3, Issue 12 , October 2014, , Pages 60-90
Abstract
The main and effective buyers and sellers of crude oil in global market are OPEC and OECD organizations that they are trying to change the prices in their favor. This paper investigated a game theory model for the two organizations which how to behave against each other in oil market. To examine the ...
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The main and effective buyers and sellers of crude oil in global market are OPEC and OECD organizations that they are trying to change the prices in their favor. This paper investigated a game theory model for the two organizations which how to behave against each other in oil market. To examine the factors and extent of influence of each mentioned organization on crude oil price offered an econometric model by using Johansen_ Juselius technique. Result shows that OPEC organization is effective on petroleum price with amount of crude oil supply and OECD organization is effective on it by harnessing oil reserves. The crude oil price is sensitivity to OPEC supply more than oil reserves is controlled by the OECD. So that OPEC organization can use it as a tool to increase bargaining power. Other variables can affect the crude oil price such as global economic growth and the effective real exchange rate America are analyzed in this paper. The result is that global economic growth has direct effect on crude oil price and real dollar exchange rate has an adverse effect on it.
Mohammad Hossein Mahdavi Adeli; Alirez Ghanbari
Volume 3, Issue 9 , January 2014, , Pages 217-237
Abstract
This paper studied the relationship between energy consumption, GDP and CO2 emission (as an indicator of air pollution). The extent of the emission of CO2 and its relation to shocks and variation in economic variables in Iran was calculated. A model based on Kuznets hypothesis was built and econometric ...
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This paper studied the relationship between energy consumption, GDP and CO2 emission (as an indicator of air pollution). The extent of the emission of CO2 and its relation to shocks and variation in economic variables in Iran was calculated. A model based on Kuznets hypothesis was built and econometric method of error correction was used for estimating the model and analyzing the long-term relation between the variables. The results indicate that there is a meaningful long-term relationship between the analyzed variable i.e. energy consumption, where GDP has a positive effect on CO2 emission. In addition the causal relation between the variables was studied and the following results were obtained: a two way causal relation between CO2 emission and energy consumption and a one way relation from GDP to CO2 emission in the short-term was found. Also the impact of an economic shock in GDP on the CO2 emission indicated an increase for 3 years and then a decline over 6 years.
Mohammadhossein Mahdavi Adeli; Azam Ghezalbash; Mohammad Daneshnia
Volume 1, Issue 3 , July 2012, , Pages 131-170
Abstract
Iran is one of major oil producers and exporters in the world. Since the crude oil export is a major source of Iran’s income, it indirectly influences the country’s other economic activities. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil price changes on major macroeconomic ...
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Iran is one of major oil producers and exporters in the world. Since the crude oil export is a major source of Iran’s income, it indirectly influences the country’s other economic activities. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil price changes on major macroeconomic variables including gross domestic product, government capital expenditures, money supply and inflation rate in Iran during 1971-2007 period. A vector Autoregression (VAR) model is estimated for this purpose. Impulse Response Function (IRF), the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) are then utilized to analyze the results. The major findings are as follows: 1-Gross domestic product, government capital expenditures, money supply and inflation rate are positively affected by oil price fluctuations. 2-Forecast Error Variance Decomposition analysis, indicates that oil price plays a major role in explaining inflation rate and money supply, but it’s role with regard to gross domestic product and government capital expenditures is secondary.
